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But then you quickly have tech debt build up because current LLMs cant plan over long scales

They don't do it by default all the time but if prompted to they're pretty good at designing and refactoring code

I'm increasingly finding my job is just making sure they don't go off the rails, and if they do it's a small effort of getting them back on track

I think you're underestimating your own role in making sure they are not going off the rails haha

yeah, I hope you're right. I find it hard to imagine how non or mildly-technical people would use it differently

Stuff like a wrapper over Plaid and some OCR is definitely dead for sure.

But currently they can't manage a vending machine as good as human, so I doubt they have our centuries long planning ability

Tech debt when doing a website? If it’s just a CMS, Claude and Codex are more than capable of building and maintaining it.

Also, planning over long scales is not something you should do if you do lean/agile. Premature optimization is a root of all evil ;)

I don't think that Claude or Codex could build and maintain a CMS as of yet.

Software is mostly in the last 5% of work

They can and they do. Unless by “build” you mean guess requirements - then yeah they can’t do it and neither can humans.