I wonder if August of this year will be remembered like that too. The very first "opus like" local AI model came out this August (Qwen 3.8 Flash Next). I've been running it locally since for real programming and I consider it pretty much the same as opus 4.6 in coding ability (it lacks a bit in the factual knowledge area). It even exceeds opus on some tasks.

I've tried every hyped "open source" model before and all including latest models bigger than 1T parameters are pretty much toys.

This is the first one that isn't. It can't be overstated how huge of a deal that is. No more reliance on Anthropic.

Running this model to do real work is still not cheap. I run it on a pc with 6 rtx3090s and 192GB of RAM (and I use 90gb of that ram for KV cache). The model is entirely on gpus. It runs at 55tok/s 1500 prefill for one user at a time, and about 35tok/s 650 prefill per user for 5 simultaneous users. It doesn't seem like much until one realises you manage your own kv cache. You ca leave your sessions in cache for as long as you want. You can save them and restore 200k sessions a week later in a dozen seconds.

What many people don't realise is that usage of those models skews extremely heavily towards input processing. My claude code usage is about 1.3B tokens input per week and only about 8M output. On claude code I get 80% cache. At home it's more like 95%.

If this progress keeps up, and we get a fable quality model in a year in under 200B to run at home... Those "frontier labs" will be renting all of their gpus per hour not to go bankrupt.