There is no reason, why a newer version has less bugs, than an older version. Both are essentially an unknown number. The only thing you know, is that you likely know a higher percentage of bugs for the older than for the newer version.
This isn't necessarily true, and will be less true in the coming age of LLM-automated vulnerability scanning. The version that you're downloading (after being nagged for a day) that adds Feature A may contain 3 vulnerabilities that are already known before you even download the update, and may or may not fix old vulnerabilities.
It’s an idea that can be checked, empirically, and it has been.
There are studies of patch releases that show patch releases introduce new bugs _only_ 15-25% of the time.
Which is not a small failure rate, sure, but that still means that a priori you are much more likely to become less vulnerable by blindly installing patches than by blindly not installing patches.