They aren't keeping supply low.
They have two massive DRAM fabs (56000 m^2 cleanroom size each) that they started construction on in 2022 and 2023 in Idaho, with production starting in 2027 and 2028.
They have two massive DRAM fabs (56000 m^2 cleanroom size each) that they started construction on in 2022 and 2023 in Idaho, with production starting in 2027 and 2028.
I don't think it is possible to beat the fab construction delays. This isn't about things being slow in the US: TSMC took four years to go from site selection to some production at their Fab 22 plant in Taiwan (it is currently only 60% built out, is my understanding). And TSMC is best in the world at getting frontier (logic) semiconductor fabs built, it took them slightly longer (five years) for Fab 21 in Arizona. Logic fabs are not the same as memory fabs, but they are close enough to be a good comparison for timeline.
Basically, unless you started fab construction (specifically to make memory chips) in 2023 you cannot change production for 2027 and 2028. The only thing that will affect prices between now and 2028 is demand, production can't go up because the fabs to make those chips don't exist. If you started now you might get memory chips in 2031, and can you bet 40 billion dollars that the demand will still be there? (A current generation logic fab costs about 20 billion. By 2031 a new frontier logic fab will cost about 40 billion). I don't have prices for a current memory fab, but as I understand it they are comparable.)
The problem is that if you do not expand your output, others will. When that happens, you will gain a competitor. Then when the crunch happens, your competitor may survive but you may not.
Therefore, if you do not increase output to meet demand them you might very well be signing the end of your company.
That's besides the point, because demand shifter for everyone in the market. You included.
So your inability to supply that demand resulted in you creating the conditions for competition to show up, and that competition can very likely outcompete you out of the market.
Doubtful. Your competition started building out additional production roughly when you did. Lets say you got a 1 year head start on shovels in the ground.
Those competitors have decades of experience producing RAM. You do not. Even if you get your facility on-line to first wafer a year earlier than the incumbents, it's unlikely you will beat them to full production output as even extremely experienced operators take 6-18mo to get a fab from first production to expected nominal output.
The only way to "win" this is to have started before the supply crunch happened back in 2021 or 2022 - or more likely much earlier. Like CXMT did.
If you were able to find a bunch of investors to give you $40-50B today, already had a site ready to start construction literally tomorrow, by the time you are on-line you will be competing with new capacity currently being built by Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix - not to mention CXMT. The only way you will be profitable is if the current demand exists through 2031 and beyond.
I know I certainly wouldn't be investing in such a project, since the entire bet is that RAM prices 5 years from now will still be at roughly what they are today. Which is simply a bet that the current AI bubble and infrastructure build-out is still ongoing.
They would still make a lot of money but without making a lot of bad blood & making a massive opening for chinese competition.
But greed is greed...