I think these jobs are actually the most likely to be replaced by AI. They have resisted automation to date because there's too much fuzz in the inputs/outputs to make it feasible to computerize. LLMs solve exactly that problem.
I think these jobs are actually the most likely to be replaced by AI. They have resisted automation to date because there's too much fuzz in the inputs/outputs to make it feasible to computerize. LLMs solve exactly that problem.
Like, sure, using an LLM as a CEO today will bankrupt you and some of the decisions leading to that are daft, but even despite that it's in the same "huh, interesting" kind of zone that early LLMs like InstructGPT and the first release of ChatGPT were with code. It could write short functions or small scripts for you, even then… but any attempt to go beyond that would fall over quite fast.
Again, the improvement in coding is due to RLVR, and it does not generalize to other domains. So it is meaningless to point to examples of that improvement.
There are many ordinary behaviors and skills that are not feasible to RL at scale. The sampling efficiency is just way to low.
Yes, like I said, a mediocre idea of how the world works.
> Again, the improvement in coding is due to RLVR, and it does not generalize to other domains. So it is meaningless to point to examples of that improvement.
I can point at actual benchmarks for performance on business tasks. On the one hand, those lines go up; on the other, I just don't know how good those benchmarks are.
> There are many ordinary behaviors and skills that are not feasible to RL at scale. The sampling efficiency is just way to low.
Yes. A point I make myself on occasion. One of two perfectly valid ways to describe intelligence, and one by which all current machine learning really sucks.
Like, if it was fully general, the trillion or so miles that Tesla cars have driven would have obsoleted the steering wheel long ago, rather than the closest we have being (yet another) pronouncement from Musk that this new car he's not actually made available for sale won't need one.
Business self-play training could be anywhere from code to cars. I was expecting much faster progress with the cars, and much slower progress with code, so I don't know how to adjust my expectations with any other domain, including business.
Software and Math are not the only things LLMs are fast improving on. Astra is one of the biggest examples of this being untrue. The model is cracked at computer use and vision/spatial tasks and reasoning. Driving, Operating Robots, Video Editing, 3D modelling, graphics are all things Astra was >>> at than any other model.
>but they can’t run a business.
And it's the leader on VendingBench. Also most people cannot run a business.