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Comment by FinnKuhn | Hacker News Reader

My personal theory is (assuming there really is no moat) whoever starts the latest with developing AI models might actually win as they should be able to develop a competitive product with significant less resources and initial investment resulting in a higher ROI. AI might even become a commodity.

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This is my secret hope for Europe!

Just a wet dream of a sleepy old European... How should this work?

~ unfortunately both Anthropic and OAI already do high end "bespoke" consulting work for business clients, the so-called "Mistral approach" is just a crappier version of that unfortunately.

Mistral / Europe just doesn't want to be in the fight.

One analogy I have heard is that distillation is like waterskiing, where the water skier seems to be moving at rapid pace and only just behind the boat, but that they aren't really expending any energy and if the boat slows down, so will they.

This seems to match what we are seeing where Chinese models from companies with only a tiny fraction of the compute are able to be hot on the heels of the frontier models.

Given that the infrastructure won't be a moat and will become a commodity.

Based on historical developments the cost of compute will go down again eventually, decreasing the cost of training AI models of the same quality as today even further. That part is what I would be the most certain about.

That’s what we see in China

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