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Comment by IncreasePosts | Hacker News Reader

Maybe there will be an inversion. Lots of white collar office jobs can be partially automated, or have their efficiency greatly increased by AI. But we still don't seem to be near widely deployed robots that finish drywall

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There may be an inversion as white collar jobs sink, but not because drywalling is going to get better. All of my family work in trades and it's a lot harder and less stable than we office workers like fantasize, as much as I love the ending of Office Space too. It's cyclical and sometimes there's not enough work. Cost of materials is volatile and can eat into your income. And it's skilled. Programmers tend to think everything else is easy and if you can teach yourself React then electrical should be a no-brainer. That's to say nothing of start-up costs. It was incredible that we coders could bootstrap six-figure careers with a $4000 MacBook Pro. Trades workers need a truck, you need power tools, if you're not loosey-goosey then you need insurance. All of that costs a lot.

That's for anyone joining the trade. Out-of-work middle-aged programmers with soft keyboard hands and little or no experience hanging dry wall? Why pay them any more than the 24 year old guy. AI may automate us out of our desk jobs, but the downward pressure of us transitioning to trade jobs, even at the bottom level, will only make those jobs less lucrative.

You think the drywall company is going to hire you? Why would they hire someone in middle age with no experience when there are no shortage of 20 year olds who already know the trade?

Also, illegal immigrants, who are actually the people who do most of the drywall.

Do you like working with dry walls? I don't. I can do it, but I ain't born for handywork.

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