They don't need to go on forever. Just long enough to maximize the share price so oil execs can sell at the top before it all comes down.

> but I would perhaps point out the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve chart[1] which is at its lowest level since 1982.

Might be the case, but that doesn't refute the argument? Maybe an empty reserve is even better for the (US) oil corps, financially.

The US Petroleum Reserve is governmental, not done by the oil industry. The US government buys and stores oil when prices are low to provide a buffer for volatility in the markets or for things like natural disasters. The reserve being low means that the oil companies are very close to having a market that has no alternative but to pay whatever price is asked for oil.

To your point about oil and LNG being expensive to transport - that just means oil corps can turn down production at the locations impacted, and jack up the prices for whatever is produced in the locations that aren't. Lower operating costs + higher revenues = profits.

It really is a perfect storm for massive returns for the major players. As a bonus, it's impacting the Saudi and Russian national players, which are their toughest competition since they don't need to file any quarterly reports. I agree that it can't go on forever, but the oil industry is rolling around in money like Scrooge McDuck in the meantime.

> see this event as probably the largest nail ever driven into the oil coffin.

It will probably go like this:

war -> fuel costs explode -> economic crisis -> AI bubble burst -> bigger economic crisis -> eventually rebuild on the ruins of what is left and go electric