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If you click through to [1] that seems like a clear downwards trend (beyond the usual noise) about two weeks before the release of Opus 4.7, Opus 4.8, and Opus 5.5. Opus 5 is the only launch that looks clean without the previous model being nerfed beforehand

https://marginlab.ai/trackers/claude-code-historical-perform...

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From that site:

> We always use the latest available Claude Code release and the SOTA model (currently Opus 5.5).

Changing the harness can have a big impact on performance even when leaving the model completely unchanged.

Sure, maybe it isn't the model getting nerved but the harness getting updates that make it better with the new model but substantially worse with the old (at that point still current) model.

The test doesn't differentiate. But neither can the average user, who will also be using the normal auto-updating harness. You still get degrading quality right before each new release

Yes, but then the model wasn't nerfed, the harness/overall product just had a plain old regression.

This is very different from a nefarious inference-side degradation to save cost, promote the new model or anything else frequently proposed as motivation.

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