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> You think its implausible for AI to replace some fraction of white collar workers?

Yes, it is. Software already did it. Better software (AI) can only marginally change what's already automated.

Yup spot on.

Either people don’t want to believe or they find it difficult to understand.

The only pipe dream AI has is to replace the human in totality. Otherwise it’s at best a complement.

It's the old Upton Sinclair line, at the end of the day there's so much money on the line and so much pressure to buy in that people just do. People are easily influenced and overwhelmed by their environment, especially when economic and social incentives are strong to do so. We saw it here with the blind worship of Elon Musk many years ago, then Crypto, then NFT's, and now with this. In every case it wasn't as if there was NOTHING there to admire, whatever I feel about Musk personally SpaceX has achieved remarkable things. Admittedly crypto and NFT's are a lot less useful outside of speculation and some really dark use cases. ML really is incredible and it's going to be something that helps humanity cope with the sheer volume of information that's become available.

But that's been conflated with "Actually a $2T Anthropic IPO makes perfect sense because they're going to replace white collar work."

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