I'm fairly confident that the crash will happen because token prices fall through the floor due to competition from the open source models. This will destroy the valuation of the AI firms and their ability to raise capital, so they'll stop spending hundreds of billions per annum on training.

OTOH, this price crash will increase demand for inference. Maybe some data centres will go bankrupt, but the scavengers won't be selling off used TPU's for cheap, they'll operate those data centers to sell you tokens for cheap.