i think you are vastly underestimating climate change risks, and are forgetting to include them in your ai risks. People 30% as wealthy because the climate cant support most economic activity arent gonna need to worry about ai anymore - we wont be able to afford running the data centers. Even on a soon basis, the bubble will pop or deflate, and again, we wont be able to run LLMs for fun

it also has actual mechanisms to actually kill all of the people - nobody is surviving a 70C heat wave, and they could end up anywhere in the world. Is the AI really gonna hunt down uncontacted tribes on remote islands in order to compete for basically no resources that are any use to the LLM?

i dont buy the selection hypothesis either - it seems rooted in pop evolution around strongest beating up weaker competitors and taking their stuff or eating them, whereas the more accurate result is that selection pressures form niches because competition and fighting is expensive