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Comment by cosmicgadget | Hacker News Reader

The Venezuela thing is a long term play. Pumping US oil makes sense in isolation but if you factor the political cost it is not a slam dunk. The more likely move to benefit US oil business is to attempt the Venezuela strategy in Iran.

I think you just need to look at the administration's rhetoric since the war started to see they were surprised by this outcome.

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> you factor the political cost

they can keep prices using reserves until midterm, and Trump likely doesn't care what will happen after that

> they were surprised by this outcome.

they were surprised initially, but this is many months long story already, they had a chance to reassess situation and there is totally a chance that oil industry petitioned to not deescalate.

I believe they expected a Venezuela-like regime change and when that didn't happen they tried to bomb Iran into anarchy. Then there was the numerous failed negotiations. And trying to coerce allies into the folly of escort duty.

I don't think deescalation is on the table, regardless of big oil. The one supposed deal that Iran was on board with made Trump look like a loser and he will put boots on the ground before he allows that. After midterms, of course.

> made Trump look like a loser

I don't think he cares, he will just declare victory as always.

I think he cares very deeply and will declare victory as always. Everything he does, to me, seems to be about insecure bravado.

E.g. he seems to be in absolute shambles over his approval rating while simultaneously claiming that the "real" polls make him look great.

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