How large of codebases are you working on? The models have gotten good enough to 1 shot stupid "trivial" throwaway integration projects with 0 handholding (was having RL'd garbage in late 2025), and I'm actually enjoying designing bounded greenfield personal software from scratch with Astra, in my experience. It's quite slow - 2 weeks of credits and constant talking and back and forth with Astra, but it doesn't feel annoying to talk to and is like an intelligent colleague maybe 70% of the time? Which is great. Just push back when it's dumb.
I'm by no means an AI booster, but given 2022 - 2026 progress I'd say it's "exponential" in the sense of, "holy shit, every year I can do more and more genuinely different things", not "RSI mind reading intelligence can do anything is here".
I don't think Navier-Stokes level intelligence translates over to my projects, unfortunately. Yet? Who knows.
> I haven’t seen actual capability growth since ~January, and I’m pretty sure that was all tooling/harness improvements.
Even if that were the case, I'd say that it's improved in practice. And just from a philosophy perspective, if you're trying to imply some kind of mind dualistic way of viewing things, uh, I disagree with those theories of intelligence strongly (which also incidentally also disagrees with AIT-style theories of intelligence on one axis, though I have many bones to pick with the culture there).