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Renewables are basically an industrial product at this point, they will get cheaper (raw material prices can throw that off, but technology will be working to make them cheaper no matter what).

The way I look at it, everyone being better off as far as energy in 2035 is a political and logistical problem, not a fundamental problem.

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But political and logistical problems are real, and they have teeth. Some places will be better off if they can build out in the near future, but some places (including the US) may be too dysfunctional to make the required investment.

Right, I put it that way because they are real, hard problems.

Still, we've come a long way from impossible if we are merely looking at a hard problem.

It’s not impossible, I just don’t see it happening here before there’s a serious crisis.

I also think there’s a chance that costs of renewable construction and replacement go up as fossil fuels get more expensive. Right now most heavy industry and mining relies on fossil power due to portability, energy density, and preexisting equipment. It’s not necessarily going to be a smooth transition, especially in politically dysfunctional countries. The bottleneck period will be difficult.

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