Fossil EROI is steadily declining and renewable EROI isn’t as high, in fact it’s much lower when you include battery storage. It’s going to get more expensive.
I guess it all depends on if EROI estimates hold up over time, how quickly we can scale up on renewables, and how much data centers and reshoring cut into available energy. There will still likely be a crunch going into next year, though.
The way I look at it, everyone being better off as far as energy in 2035 is a political and logistical problem, not a fundamental problem.
Still, we've come a long way from impossible if we are merely looking at a hard problem.
I also think there’s a chance that costs of renewable construction and replacement go up as fossil fuels get more expensive. Right now most heavy industry and mining relies on fossil power due to portability, energy density, and preexisting equipment. It’s not necessarily going to be a smooth transition, especially in politically dysfunctional countries. The bottleneck period will be difficult.