Why house prices may be in trouble
economist.com
economist.com
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds
Real estate isn’t the only asset class about to deflate, private equity too (and tech, see BendingSpoons bargain shopping).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/pimco-fac...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-09-24/private-e...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-23/private-e...
Asset prices will continue to decline until excess equity from ZIRP debt has been drained via higher borrowing costs (reducing valuation) until prices arrive at current money cost valuations.
The End of Private Equity’s Leveraged Buyout Era Is Nigh - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-30/the-en... | https://archive.ph/B1EfY - September 30th, 2026
Takeaways:
- Higher-for-longer interest rates are forcing buyout firms to face facts and admit that returns will fall short of what was promised for many existing funds.
- Industry leaders are expanding into new business areas, with major buyout firms playing down the importance of the funds that made their names and focusing on less risky private loans.
- The private-equity industry may evolve into an industry of long-term manager-owners of companies that are more stable, produce good cash flows and are much less burdened by debt, with investments held for decades.