It didn’t “calculate probabilities”, it just hallucinated slop. The same kind of slop almost started WW3 when a similar “intelligence analyst” system told the US navy to attack China because they were smuggling nukes into Iran. They weren’t, it was all slop. But their system was full of “calculated probabilities” too!
It doesn’t care whether your system is made of LLMs, decision trees, or bananas.
However, the problem is that unlike something like a neural net, you can’t exactly use backprop to improve.
On the flip side if the quality of the prediction doesn’t matter, I might as well have Claude spin up something shiny that does the same thing faster, cheaper, and with 10x the magic sparkles.
The entire human scientific community has been shown recently on average to be generating "slop" and calling it science.
My bottom line: humans generate a lot of BS--and LLM's are just averaging it and giving it back to us.