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Comment by stickfigure | Hacker News Reader

It's a mistake to blindly adopt tit-for-tat. Presumably Z has a list of important targets and is working his way down. Maybe data centers rank, maybe they don't.

During the Battle of Britain, Churchill ordered a bombing attack on Berlin. Consequently, Hitler ordered Göring to switch from attacking military infrastructure to attacking London. This is widely considered to have been a significant strategic mistake that helped the British win the Battle of Britain.

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I would imagine data centers would have more military value for Ruzzia than Wildberry, but also a significant escalation (which Ruzzia has now seemingly done)

Data centers are now dual use infrastructure and valid war targets

Discussion of certain tactics as "escalation" is a bit silly. Both sides have already escalated about as far as they're able — short of using WMDs.

Would it not be an escalation if Moscow declares a full general mobilization and sends all conscripts to fight in Ukraine?

There's a reason they haven't done that, and what exactly are they going to equip all of those conscripts with? An old rifle and a prayer?

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian...

There are rumors about mobilization, but Russia will almost certainly have to if Putin wishes to continue taking land.

They are growing their drone divisions - and Russia cares less about equipping storm troopers. They still have elite units with good kit, but not necessary for most. Russia fights wars differently from the West, they give up land and blood for time. Works better when they are the one being attacked (eg. napoleon, hitler), but likely applies here in a stalemate like situation.

Another point of growth for Russia is the ballistic missiles, for which Ukraine has no good answer at the moment :/ We should really be enabling Ukraine's domestic production of a PAC like interceptor, but Trump will forever dislike Zelenskyy, re: the phone call

There are always rumors about mobilization, but the issue remains that doing so would bring the war home to the Russian middle class in a way that would lead to at best, another massive flight from the country. You can say "They'd shut the borders", but even if Russia were tiny it's also too corrupt to make that stick. It would also be a blow to what's left of their economy and productivity, including war-critical industry.

All of that would get them... what? Manpower is needed, but nothing would happen with a massed infantry charge except a mass slaughter, no one is doing that on the front anymore. It's all trenches, artillery, drones, infiltration units with high mobility and a low signature. Russia also hasn't magically grown a ton of fuel, vehicles, weapons and logistics so this really would be throwing warm bodies directly into a grave.

The ballistic missile issue is there you're right, but their current production rate is about ~60 per month and while that's awful, it's not going to change any outcomes. If murdering people in Kyiv and taking out grain silos was going to deter Ukraine it would have happened a long time ago. Ukraine seems to be aware that this is an existential issue for them, which makes sense given what the Russians have done and said to express an intention to ethnically cleanse Ukraine.

All of that together, and Ukraine's increasing ability to strike deep within Russia, taking out their refinery capacity, denying their shipping, etc... why would they stop? Russia would only adapt their AD network, EW, re-arm, and then keep going. This *already happened in 2014* so it's hardly hypothetical.

IMO a lot of people here talk a lot about what they know very little about beyond surface-level readings of news articles, all because they're smart enough to code. That's insane.

> IMO a lot of people here talk a lot about what they know very little about beyond surface-level readings of news articles, all because they're smart enough to code. That's insane.

You might reflect on this with some of the claims you have made here w.r.t. perspectives on Russian capabilities. Western experts like WotR, CSIS, and ISW hold different opinions and warn about common under-estimations

It’s a grinding war that’s taking g countless lives and displacing millions of others, it’s an economic and environmental disaster. I’m not underestimating the ability of Russia to do harm to Ukraine, but one of the more instructive facts is just how slow any movement on the front line has been. Ukraine has substantial external support, Russia does not. None of that changes the ability of Russia to harm Ukraine, but when you consider Ukraine’s emerging capabilities it isn’t hard to see that it’s a two-way street now.

Russian troops in some forward areas are already literally starving because the logistics system is so broken. There's no point in sending a lot more troops beyond the quantity necessary to replace attribution losses if they can't keep them supplied. Even Russians can't fight indefinitely on an empty stomach.

"both sides" - is Ruzzia primarily attacking military targets or civilians, cam you recall?

We could also check how many children have been kidnapped by the both sides.

"Russia’s ‘human safari’ in southern Ukraine is a warning to the world"

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-h...

Ruzzians hunt and kill babushkas for sport, sickening

https://meanovia.com/babushka-meaning/

Yes, Russia is bad. The point is that they don't have much capability remaining to escalate beyond what they're already doing. So the war will grind on indefinitely.

Russian certainly seems to be escalating by way of presumed attacks against NATO states to test the alliances resolve in attempting to show the response is weak, goal is to undermine NATO's own trust in itself (each other)

Depending on how you consider escalation, their preference pivot from one-way drones to ballistic missiles can be considered one

I've thought that before but they come up with new things quite often.

Check how many power plants, how many dams, how many book producing facilities, how many theatres are being destroyed by each side. It's clear who has started a new round and continue genocidal war. Russians had tried to erase Ukrainian etnic identity for centuries.

Oh, I checked. I think you misread my comment.

I'd say the real issue is that datacenters are super flammable (unlike refineries and evidently wildberries warehouses). Russia can use ballistic missiles on Ukraine's DCs but Ukraine has relatively small drones and few flamingo missiles

> I would imagine data centers would have more military value for Ruzzia than Wildberry

You and I are not informed enough to speculate like this. Presumably the military planners in Ukraine are competent. If they haven't been striking data centers, it's almost certainly because they prioritize other targets. It won't be because they haven't thought of it or are afraid to do so.

Sounds like Russia should make the first move to de-escalate given their role in starting this invasion and spending so much time striking civilian Ukrainian targets.

Russians terrorists are already primarily targeting schools, shelters, residential buildings, energy infrastructure, etc.

One of the first acts of was a destruction of the dam.

"It's a mistake to blindly adopt tit for tat" - what are they going to do, bomb some datacentres or power plants (again)?

I hope Ukraine is going to bring a major inconvenience to Russia before this winter. Otherwise kacaps are going to continue supporting this outrageous aggression.

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