This is exactly right. 2026 Nissan LEAF is at 30k point, once it drops down to 20-25 it's over for internal combustion cars.
Most importantly: they have LFP batteries which last much longer than Li-ion ones in addition to being safer.
I gladly don't own a car but if I did it would be an ICE for sure.
Two things will likely solve it:
1. There's isn't a fixed number of chargers in the world. Eventually the majority of commercial car parking space will have a charging point because they're getting cheaper and it's an easy value add.
2. Charging is getting ever faster and range is growing. 800v platforms are probably the next obvious step but after that something else will come along.
Imagine an EV with 1000 mile range that charges in 5 minutes and costs less than half what the average ICE car does now. It's far fetched but it's not so far fetched.
There are no such improvements on the way for ICE technology.
Electrification is happening right now in the rest of the world and it can't be stopped because it's better technology.
On street charging is being installed in most countries as we speak.
But I don't want a cheaper car anyway, I want better public transport.
That's fine, but you're a small minority in most of the world. People want on-demand transportation.
Not a problem since a decade in Oslo. We have chargers. It’s cheap and relatively easy to install.
In the netherlands it's much harder to upgrade the distribution network, right now in many places it's not even possible anymore to build new housing because the network is full and it will take at least a decade to fix it.
And it's not the only country with that issue.
And charging infra doesn't last longer than the car, standards are still changing a lot, and getting faster charge modes that put more burden on distribution nets.
Does the ICE marketshare only drop to 10-20%? I feel like that could be describes as "it's over".