> That's what I mean by "It's unlikely that this is some AGI that spawned itself out of nothing and started doing this."
Sounds like a disagreement on labels then.
I don't think our positions are very far apart, after accounting for that.
> presumably working on instructions from a human to complete a task.
The instructions were, reportedly, a few sentences, no more complex than the simple description you already had. To quote:
No more technical details than the idea: fuzz Linux filesystems with AFL++. So this ain't rocket science to kick off.
To preempt anyone asking about the training data or using tools: I think that's irrelevant at this point. This open-weights model (Kimi) exists, however it was trained. It has these capabilities, both to use a fuzzer and to make use of the results, regardless of what went into the model. It reduces tasks that the Linux team demonstrably didn't have time for previously, to "while you sleep".
Doesn't matter if you think Altman et al are liars and frauds who are overselling everything and had humans doing the hacking on purpose just for the headlines: the capabilities are there even with open weights models.
> That doesn't happen if proper safety measures are in place, because if it does happen with safety measures in place, by definition, those measures aren't proper.
That would be a better world. I'm expecting things to get much, much worse before the risks are taken seriously.
That said, I'm not sure "likely without the public even knowing the hacking had occurred." is good? Surely it's important for everyone to know that this kind of thing is within the capability of AI so that they can harden their systems? (Or at least their offline backups).
I'm reminded of what was reported said in the court case about the first ever automobile fatality (the quotation changes with different retellings):
"LEE JONG-WOOK, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), recalled that the first person to be killed by a car had been Bridget Driscoll, a 44-year-old mother of two, who was knocked down at London’s Crystal Palace on 17 August 1896. The car had been travelling at 12 km per hour. Speaking at the inquest, the British coroner had warned: 'This must never happen again.' The world, to its great loss, had not taken his advice."
Despite the coroner’s words, neither the driver nor his employers were charged with causing Mrs. Driscoll’s death or committing any other offence; the inquest verdict labelled her death “accidental”, in other words, brought about by chance or bad luck. We know of no steps that were taken for a thorough examination of cause, effect and likely remedy that might prevent a similar death from occurring in the future.
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https://www.un.org/en/un-chronicle/road-deaths-and-injuries-...Based on how many people die from vehicle collisions, from industrial accidents, from pollution, etc., I'm expecting the last headline before AI is properly regulated to read "x killed due to AI" (or similar), where 1e3 < x < 1e7: the lower bound is well within the range for some industrial accident, and anything less than a thousand and humans demonstrably don't pay much attention for very long unless they knew one of the dead; the upper bound implies a war* or a pandemic, and for all that I roll my eyes at the "COVID was a lab leak" claims, multiple labs are now trying to get LLMs to do biology research, so "millions dead" is very plausible**.
I'd put about 10% odds on AI competence rising so much faster than society is willing to respond, that we blow through the upper number all the way to "doom".
* Reports are the US only avoided one with China this year because humans were still in the loop. On the other hand, humans didn't stop the AI which told them to send missiles to that school in Iran.
** Right now, the AI are not competent enough to do such work directly, but the historical path with AI has been "get less incompetent while continuously making mistakes" rather than "do nothing until you're actually good", so I fully expect these labs to leak something, and that whatever the specific details of that leak end up being, everyone after the event will look at it and go "what idiot thought this was a good idea?"
Good news though: probably not much worse than any normal pandemic. Biologists seem to be skeptical that someone can engineer a super-version of existing diseases.
We can but hope that a leak which shuts this all down is something as trivial as "common cold which makes your nose hairs bioluminescent".