My take: I don't think recursive self-improvement (RSI) will happen with current LLM architectures, even if they become 1000x "smarter".

RSI requires more than being better at solving problems. An AI needs to decide what is worth improving, come up with genuinely new ideas, and decide which ideas are worth pursuing.

Current LLMs are still weak at two of these: judgement (what matters) and new ideas. They're very good at combining and developing existing ideas, but that's different from independently finding important new directions.

That's also why I don't think most knowledge workers can simply be replaced by LLMs. Many tasks can be automated, but the most important ones can't.