Games industry predictions for 2013 | Hacker News Reader

Games industry predictions for 2013

venturebeat.com

12 pointsdaredevildave12 comments

You could have written that article at the end of 2011. It didn't happen.

For one thing, that's just too much to happen in 2013, even if it were all eventually to happen.

For another, I'm really beginning to think it's time to update the increasingly aged idea that mobile is just going to steamroll over all other gaming. Honestly, if that were going to happen, we shouldn't be theorizing about it, we should be seeing it now, as a done deal that has been done for a year or two. We're up to something like the sixth or seventh iPhone iteration. Cell phones are currently available that have plausibly have more 3D power per pixel than existing consoles. This is not a new product category any more. I'm really of the idea that you can't build a huge gaming platform on top of a foundation of an input device that requires you to cover half or more of the screen with your hand to inaccurately input a command. Scale up to shrink the amount of the screen you're covering, and you increase the muscle strain required. It hasn't taken off because it isn't going to, or perhaps rather, it has succeeded to the extent it is going to succeed in the genres it is going to succeed in, but it just isn't going to displace dedicated systems out of the market.

It's about the IO, and unassisted phones and tablets can't compete with the dedicated input devices. Put a dedicated input device on your phone or tablet and it's not a phone or tablet any more, or not portable. And there's still the O part of the IO to talk about; hook your phone up to the TV and it's, again, not a phone anymore. Now it's a console again, and suddenly people who have been making consoles for a couple of decades are once again looking like they may have an edge or two over the newcomers, however well funded. (Who cares what OS the console runs, it's just about the software.)

(Oh, and I wouldn't advertise my claims about gesture technologies taking off with somebody holding their hands in an "my elbows are in pain, ow" posture like that. That's taking a bit of a cheap shot on my part, since people have been making that prediction for a very long time now.)

"So far, the Wii U is selling out, but not in astounding numbers."

Outselling the 360 and PS3 launches by a huge margin and coming damn close to the Wii's isn't astounding? ( http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/wii-u-sales-data-some-good/783765 )

Nintendo has the reverse side of the Apple RDF; no matter how much money they make or how many more consoles they sell than anybody else people insist they are failing and on the verge of doom.

It's probably one of the most clear examples of substituting ones personal opinions for facts that I know about. The Wii is my personal least favorite console of this generation too... but that doesn't change the fact it was very, very successful.

Also important is that it's selling for $100 more than the original Wii did! Taking that into consideration, it's a pretty darned good launch.

Given that he ignores the Oculus Rift, it seems like a poorly-informed list. Everyone who tries that thing seems to freak out at how awesome it is... No mention of this device (even in a negative light) suggests this guy is pretty ignorant of the industry.

EDIT: I just want to make it clear I'm not saying "OMG OCULUS ROCKS" I'm only saying it's suspicious it wasn't mentioned in some way by OP.

The Rift has yet to prove itself beyond kickstarter and the gaming community.

If you notice, most of his predictions are safe, or have been happening on a smaller scale already.

Virtual Reality has a shaky history, and it'd still be a risky bet to say the Rift will ultimately succeed.

Point taken.

However, as a random person on the internet I can afford to make a bold prediction:

Both Microsoft and Sony consoles will prominently feature a Rift-like device (licensed or cloned) as their primary selling point for Christmas 2013.

Well this is predictions for 2013. It seems reasonable to assume it will take over a year for the Rift to be released, affordable, well supported and a common trend.

I think two things needed to be covered in this list but weren't:

1) will crowdsourcing (Kickstarter and IndieGoGo) continue to change the industry or has it peaked?

2) will indie titles continue to gain steam or was their meteoric rise this year just a fluke?

Half of these predictions I don't really care, but the other half I would not like to see happening. It may be a sad year for me.

What about the growth of virtual economies?

Zynga return money to shareholder via share buy back and winds up the company.

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