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> there is a mathematician on Twitter offering a $25,000 bet, with no taker

OpenAI spent $15 mil working on Navier Stokes.

So you're saying OpenAI not taking a $25k bet is proof of something?

I wouldn't expect the person who paid the $15M bill to be the one to take the bet, but the "expect to solve/announce it soon" rumor apparently came from some OpenAI employee, so the ship seems to be leaking, and yet nothing more.

I can see Altman sitting on 100 less famous math results waiting for the best PR opportunity to release them, but hard to see him sitting on this, risking being scooped by a competitor.

There is no risk of being scooped. There are multiple ways of preregistering this, from timed crypto hashes, to showing the proofs to influential mathematicians before releasing them.

In the world of PR it's about appearances - who grabs the headlines.

It this had happened and been shared with mathematicians, there would be leaks.

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