Hacker News Reader

Comment by Apes | Hacker News Reader

I'll believe it the day SpaceX - the AI company that is mostly making money selling datacenter compute using gas turbines for energy - takes a single day 90% or greater drop in stock price.

View on HN

Currently nobody knows when the first big financial crisis is fully locked in. For example, if OpenAI can't close another round, and they default on their contracts with Oracle, there's your sign. Until then it looks like everybody is enjoying the communal hallucination.

> Currently nobody knows when the first big financial crisis is fully locked in.

What do you mean the "first" big? 1929? 2001? 2008?

Do you mean 1929 wasn't a big financial crisis and that, this time, we'll have the first "real" big financial crisis?

I'm confused.

I mean the first AI financial crisis at an AI company. I did provide an example. First, the investor cash has to dry up, then the AI data centers have to start getting itchy about what those multi billion dollar contracts are actually worth.

They mean the roughly 25 year tech sector run that's now culminating in the irrational exuberance of AI. There have been some hits already and the result of those is market cap consolidation of the largest companies. Not sure what the number is but the the 10 largest companies make up a huge percent of the entire S&P and most have extreme exposure to the same risks. The sector has been boosted by the NVIDIA circular financing as well but at some point there is a limit. Although they are angling for a pre-bailout with all the AI is going to kill humanity fear mongering. The only savior for the sector will be the government, the question is if the government steps in before or after an organic collapse.

OpenAI's already announced they're not going public in 2026:

https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-ipo-will-not...

They could potentially do another private bridge round, but for a company that was gearing up for the largest IPO in history a couple months ago, the reversal is a pretty bad sign. For investors that are looking for a fire sale, there's already smoke in the air.

Probably the next nvidia chip drop because the old chips where priced at their highest level at a depreciation of 5 years instead of the 2 year norm. What happens when the next chip is way better(hearing 67x better, not just the 10x from initial claims)? Well all those chips need to be dumped fast and depreciate that second and the datacenter gets bankrupted and parted out

Be careful what you wish for. The repercussions might be titanical.

We're already seeing repercussions from an economy that has been retooled not to actually produce anything of value, but to produce more air to fill up the largest economic bubble in the history of the world.

National debt through the roof, inflation through the roof, PHD and research programs gutted, non-ai startups dead and unfunded for the last 4 years. These are just a few things that have been sacrificed on the altar of this bubble - there's far more I haven't recounted.

We're already in a widespread long term economic collapse, but the delusion just hasn't broken yet.

You are in the warmup phase for one of the greatest take offs in human history. Enjoy the ride.

Oh, so our jobs and financial well-being are the rocket fuel being burnt, then?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com