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Comment by blurbleblurble | Hacker News Reader

It's going to happen very soon, which is why these frontier labs are scrambling to shut down open source language models. There's an existential risk threatening their obscene returns.

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It is for that reason they are being archived and torrented as a very large middle finger.

I feel like cost competitiveness of local has been going down, if anything, not up. API providers can use hardware more and have scale efficiencies. Do you see any reason this will reverse?

> It's going to happen very soon

Why? You can't just assert it. There are very good reasons to think it won't happen soon, and you've given no reasons to think it will happen soon.

You asserted that it was never going to happen first

But he gave a reason for that. "Before that happens the frontier will move". Why do you think it will happen anyway? Do you think the frontier will not move fast enough that local models are unable to catch up, or do you think people will prefer local models at a point. Or something else?

Because everything is converging on a backlog of huge efficiency gains established in research, waiting to be combined. Looped transformers, a whole host of diffusion techniques and new quantization techniques, maturation of ternary distillation and new ways to separate logic from stuff that can be looked up. It would surprise me if most frontier models were actually even that big at that point in terms of active params. I highly doubt it.

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