Why would more RAM supply lead to higher consumer prices?
More HBM4 will drive the price of it down. That will make it less profitable to produce. That will mean firms shift some production back to more profitable "consumer" RAM. Increased supply will lead to lower prices.
A shortage is always followed by a glut.
Long-term, sure. But the article we are discussing is about next year, non-HBM supply going from 60% of their output to 20% (HBM 40%→80%).
Yes. Non-HBM Samsung supply going from 60% to 20% will cause prices to increase, which will cause increased production of non-HBM, and then prices will fall (below where they currently are).
Supply is currently moving the wrong way. Supply and demand for consumer DRAM will get even worse, even if it will "definitely fix this" in the long run.
And the fact that production is moving the wrong way suggests that in the short term supply and demand is actually doing more harm than good. HBM is so profitable it's radioactive.
I don't know where you got the idea in another comment that all memory will get "very cheap quite soon". They're not increasing total memory production. (much/yet)
You said:
> the market doesn't fit the issue.
I presume you meant "fix" not "fit". You are wrong that the market will not fix the issue. There are literally millions of observed cases across many markets of increased demand (or decreased supply) leading to higher prices leading to increased supply leading to lower prices, which is why it's a fundamental law of economics.
The price of RAM will fall.
That wasn't me.
Also they're talking about the short to medium term. On that time scale they're not wrong. The market is so far from fixing it right now, it's going in the opposite direction. The market is chasing HBM money which is outbidding everything else.
> The price of RAM will fall.
And if that might take 5+ years, that's not much comfort.
> higher prices leading to increased supply leading to lower prices
So far higher prices are causing barely any supply increases. (Note that the article we're commenting on is about a supply decrease.) Companies are barely trying to expand, and even if they do start trying hard it'll take a very long time.
There are so few players in this space they can coordinate and collude pretty easily.
Ram always goes through these boom and bust cycles. They're going to increase supply but not so much that they're eventually left with huge overproduction as usual.
Of course if Google researchers come up with more ram reduction tricks for newer AI architectures that could make a huge difference as well
Micron's NY fab had a press release two months ago that they started pouring the first concrete, so that's far from coming online.
If AI demand sticks around and buildouts stay cautious it could take much much longer than usual to build up enough capacity to push prices back down below $3/GB.
More efficient AI memory use risks even more demand for memory because you're now able to get even more performance per dollar; the benefit of extra memory has to be sufficiently far into diminishing returns for demand to drop overall.
Everything in their statement can be true and it be a bad thing for consumers of non-HBM RAM.
"HBM capacity to expand to 250,000 wafers a month"
So let's say their current HBM capacity is 100k wafers/month (pure speculation/random number for illustration), and their total RAM capacity (including HBM( is 300k wafers/month, then non-HBM capacity reduces from 200k to 50k.
Micron has been working on expanding in Boise since around 2023. They are predicting that the first new chips will start rolling out around 2027.
I don't think we'll see any relief until at least 2028 or even later. And even then, probably not without antitrust laws being enforced. Because you know memory manufacturers won't just simply drop prices, they have a long history of price fixing.
SK Hynix's new Cheongju M15x fab was originally intended to be for DDR, but mid-construction they shifted it to HBM. Similarly, the Icheon M10F packaging line has been retooled to HBM, allowing it to assist in processing the output of other fabs.
And this was news early last year, so who knows how far it has progressed since then.