Large index funds that most people’s portfolio inevitably includes substantially invest in AI-adjacent stocks. Not to mention the fact that bubble bursting is not by any means guaranteed to have its effects limited to one sector.
AI is the sole reason why stocks have gone up since 2022.
That means that all new investment has been in AI (trading in other sectors is a wash). So a bubble burst would sweep up all that growth.
2022-26 is irrelevant for people's retirement savings. They are not or should not be even paying attention to that short-term movement. If the bubble bursts there will be collateral damage that impacts way more than just AI or AI-adjacent companies, and that could have long-term consequences
It isn't going to go below what it was in 2022. AI has added too much productivity since.