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Comment by alpinisme | Hacker News Reader

People whose retirement funds might be impacted by a bubble burst, or who might lose their jobs (or struggle to get a first/next job) in a post crash economy.

You seem to be neglecting the economic impact question and assuming only the ai companies themselves are impacted in a burst.

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The entire stock market is being held up by AI. Any company that is not AI for the last 5 years has been declining or flat. But are retirement funds really impacted by the bubbling bursting, or are they simply correcting back to the real economic condition for the majority of the country.

You assume that the money that was invested in AI wouldn’t have been invested elsewhere.

That’s only if they buy in now. If they don’t believe in AI, they wouldn’t buy in now.

Large index funds that most people’s portfolio inevitably includes substantially invest in AI-adjacent stocks. Not to mention the fact that bubble bursting is not by any means guaranteed to have its effects limited to one sector.

AI is the sole reason why stocks have gone up since 2022.

That means that all new investment has been in AI (trading in other sectors is a wash). So a bubble burst would sweep up all that growth.

2022-26 is irrelevant for people's retirement savings. They are not or should not be even paying attention to that short-term movement. If the bubble bursts there will be collateral damage that impacts way more than just AI or AI-adjacent companies, and that could have long-term consequences

It isn't going to go below what it was in 2022. AI has added too much productivity since.

do you remember, how spacex was trying to bribe.. ehr.. convince.. regulators to be fast tracked into S&P 500?

And they said no.

Why do you think anthropic is postponing their IPO?

Yes, I mentioned SpaceX a few minutes ago before your post. I didn’t like that but that’s only one company and it is Elon. He’s been scamming investors well before SpaceX.

I think Anthropic is postponing their IPO because OpenAI is killing it.

They do not have a choice of whether to buy in if they are doing the sound strategy of index funds through their 401k, funds which are now inflated by the bubble

Their 401k and index funds have been very happy since AI buildout.

Completely irrelevant short-term thinking that is the exact wrong way to think about retirement savings

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