That's exactly what "prediction markets" sell themselves as. Super-predictors.
Insiders have an edge and can in theory shape the overall distribution of bets such that the real world outcomes are priced in better.
Insiders have an edge and can in theory shape the overall distribution of bets such that the real world outcomes are priced in better.
Maybe the people who could take advantage of these markets are just not sufficiently aware of their existence.
I predict that in 5 years "who wins Survivor" will be completely dead though, because the markets will have become common knowledge and there'll be enough people willing to violate their NDAs/whatever for the money.
In prediction markets, imitation is the best policy