People who know the most often sound the least certain | Hacker News Reader

People who know the most often sound the least certain

vrash.substack.com

35 pointsvirde16 comments

It's revealing that the author thinks that a podcast is the ideal venue to reason through complex technical issues.

The "like" phenomenon is less of a verbal fluency issue and more of a cultural one. You can listen to someone smart like Donald Knuth speak and he will definitely stammer and stutter a lot, but he doesn't use filler words. "Like" is more of a West Coast or California thing and I also find it annoying and distracting.

Just a little more effort and STEM people will discover the social sciences. Cute.

>The people who know the most often sound the least certain

As was beautifully demonstrated in this article.

  The best lack all conviction, while the worst
  Are full of passionate intensity.

- W.B. Yeats

"The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt."

Bertrand Russell

> while the worst > Are full of passionate intensity.

sounds like the ideal entrepreneur to give funding to

Not sure I agree with this. It's often true in SF, but that is largely an affectation, people imitating people like Peter Thiel etc. But not as true elsewhere

In medicine you want the doctor who's willing to admit "we don't understand the exact mechanism here" + also who wants more details from you before making a decision, vs confidently brushing you off and writing a prescription as fast as possible.

Lawyers will usually give much less-certain answers to questions like "is it legal to do X" than lay people as well because they're aware of much more nuance in the law. (Not referring to the wishy-washy corporate-law answers given to avoid liability here, but in outside convo about issues.)

Yes, there is a whole world out there outside of SF. As much as we'd like it to be true, arrogance itself cannot be contained by a mere city!

Statistically, the asshole capital of the world really ought to be somewhere in China or India, but the language barrier is too high for most of us to know.

Dude is using AI for a slop-post that complains that AI pundits are not persuasive enough and should take acting classes.

Really, the one thing missing in 2026 is more and better AI propaganda!

"As a rule, strong feelings about issues do not emerge from deep understanding." -Sloman and Fernbach

Also, the Dunning-Kruger effect still applies to smart people. You don't stop when you are estimating your ability correctly; as you learn more, you gain more awareness of your ignorance and continue being conservative with your self-estimates.

Reminder that the “Dunning-Kruger effect” is not real. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49160437

That reminds me of the old saying " who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?"

Are you really sure you read the discussion on this?

Please re-read the first sentence of my previous comment.

Generally speaking, you can't really tell what someone knows based on their words or actions.

Performative behavior is not a modern phenomenon. Deceitfulness is so effective we're not going to end it by discussing Dunning-Kruger every chance we get. Mere knowledge is not enough to defeat it, and you'll always be sorry when you underestimate your opponents.

It's all ultimately a matter of trust, and that takes time most people don't have or don't want to give. It's more important to stack incentives to compel behavior and hedge your bets against people who seem off.

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