> The models are really impressive, but I don't think it's cope to remark that this was in essence a 1:10000 chance outcome.
I don’t think that’s an accurate way to think about what’s going on. These agents are not acting independently where one might get lucky. They coordinate how they work by dividing up work into teams.
> Even if they double in capability each generation as claimed, you're still to wait until GPT-16 till you will have a millenium problem capable model in your service; and even if they release twice a year, that's still almost a decade away.
Having a publicly accessible AI able to solve millennium problems within a decade is still pretty shocking. I did a similar calculation looking at how long would today’s $10m in spend cost $100 and came up with a similar answer (8.3 years) using METR’s “Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models”[0]