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Comment by pianopatrick | Hacker News Reader

When you say AI will be powerful, what do you mean? Like in terms of national power, will AI let the US fight and win a war against China despite China's size, manufacturing base and possession of nuclear weapons? Will AI let the US beat the Chinese in manufacturing costs and scale despite China's greater adoption of industrial robots and larger number of skilled workers? Or will AI just be really good at writing software?

Because if the AI is just really good at writing software, I am not sure why China has to "catch up". Seems to me China can just treat AI like other technologies. Let the US pay most of the R&D costs, then come after and treat the technology as a commodity. Sell it better and cheaper and at scale.

I am not sure why it's a big deal for China if China is a few months behind the US in terms of the very frontier AI. Just like I'm not sure if it's a big deal which country has the biggest super computer in the world.

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If AI is super human, it can beat any nation with today’s technology. It can recursively self improve while suppressing any other lab (think about how good it is in hacking computer systems).

I am not inventing a winner take it all scenario, that is what driving the race.

But, like, how does that smarts lead to beating nations with today's technology? How would an AI stop an incoming nuclear ballistic missile? I've heard on podcasts with MIT professor Ted Postol that based in the laws of physics intercepting these is basically impossible, because of the speeds and physics involved. Can AI discover new physics to overcome those limitations?

If AI cannot stop nuclear ballistic missiles, then how does AI give the US power over China? Seems to me that after AI we have the same mutually assured destruction we have today. In which case America cannot really stop China from progressing or threaten China too much.

Seems to me being super human intelligent does not inherently guarantee power. Just like the smartest person in the world does not always win in a fist fight or a gun fight or war. I.e. Stephen Hawking might have been smart, but he did not have physical strength and power. Power and smarts are not always related.

I just gave you a scenario above - that it hacks every computer system in China, including those controlling nuclear missiles. But a super intelligent AI can invent scenarios that almost by definition we cannot think of.

I would assume that the computer systems in China that control nuclear missiles, as well as our computer systems that control nuclear missiles, are air gapped and therefore not hackable no matter how smart the AI is.

This only demonstrates imposed limits you are able to imagine, not what’s possible in all scenarios. A super intelligent AI can bribe, social engineer and do anything it wants. No system is foolproof.

Well yes in an imaginary world everything is possible. We are less close to what you’re describing than to having flying cars.

Gotta love the bot accounts here

Superhuman does not mean actual superpowers. You still need a path to victory and it's not obvious that there's one that we're just too dumb to see.

Historically civilizations that have been only at a slight technological advantage have completely dominated those that are slightly behind.

And we already see AI’s super human ability in computer systems. It will be able to be Omni present and completely control every computer in any place, and bribe and social engineer and mimic any person digitally. All while doing in an instant what a team of humans would require years.

I’m really surprised by the lack of logical thinking in HN when it comes to China.

You might as well use “magic” in your comments instead of “AI” and you would make an equal amount of sense.

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