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Comment by jesse_dot_id | Hacker News Reader

It will be interesting to see if this changes because presumably AI is using very predictable historical models, but it seems like the climate is shifting into something unseen that we won't have models for?

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Yes, I heard from one first-rate forecaster that he thinks AI forecasters are especially weak in predicting big disruptive changes to the world.

Hard to study this, obviously!

Are you referring specifically to climate as in weather? The article is about forecasting a range of future events, not specifically weather.

Climate as a pattern of weather over a long period of time. If the climate is increasingly unpredictable, I would think that it wouldn't really effect our ability to make short-term predictions, like a few days out.

But our ability to forecast weather on a longer timeline, like for industrial forecasting, is calibrated on historical weather patterns. But with weather being more erratic and unusual, I don't understand how AI will be forecasting with the models they have now.

I think you're misunderstanding my point. The headline's usage of the term "forecasting" is not referring to weather forecasting, or climate forecasting. It's referring to forecasting a wide range of possible future events.

For example, predicting which party will win an election, or if there will be a major cyber event in the next year, or the price of Gold in 6 months. Presumably a few of the questions could be related to climate as you're thinking of.

Of course model predictions will be acted upon, which will invalidate the predictions.

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