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Comment by invaliduser | Hacker News Reader

If "70% of Canadian exports are to the US", that's probably why the US has so much leverage, and I can see why the Canadian government would like a change. Hence the need for a rebalancing of trade partnerships.

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I'd like to take a closer look at what exactly Canada is exporting to the US, and what exactly the EU is importing from elsewhere, to see if there's a match. I'd rather buy from Canada than from Russia. Or China. Or the US.

I bought a dbrand case from Canada last week. Even the packaging is funnier (in a comical way) than US products.

Sorry, my brain is fried by a cold :).

The important categories are oil and potash. Consumer actions might not influence those much.

How much oil is Europe still importing from Russia? I'd rather have Canadian.

I’m sure China would, too. I wonder what’s harder: diverting that oil to the northwest passage, or diverting Persian Gulf oil around the strait of Hormuz?

You know how despite climate change being very real, in day to day discussions with other level headed people, they still very regularly say stuff like

"We ran the numbers for an EV, and right now gas is still cheaper, so we are holding off on the switch until it makes financial sense"

Canadian oil would need to be shipped halfway around the world. It would be more expensive. Price is always the top factor for everyone.

Fair point. What we really need of course is more renewables, and that is happening, but not fast enough, so we still need oil. And I'd rather get our oil in a way that doesn't fuel the Russian war machine, even if it does cost a bit more.

The politically-important Alberta oil mostly goes to the mountain states down here. Coincidentally, those same states rely heaviest on coal for electricity. So, the choice is recharge an EV on coal (think arsenic and mercury accumulating somewhere nearby) or good ol gasoline (which is piped from Canada).

The heavy oil refineries are generally near the Gulf and in the Midwest, so that's where the Canadian oil goes.

That’s proportionally true. Utah and Wyoming depend on Alberta because of elevation. I’m confused by the change at Seaway.

Mountain states? Can't they use hydro power?

I think what you’re wondering is: can residential electricity schedules promote off-peak rates for EV charging. I’ve seen that and I think it takes the edge off.

But we’re in a drought right now. I think hydro is down at least 20%. Wyoming wind power alone totally makes up for that.

Wouldn't being strongly aligned with the EU give Canada a lot more leverage in trade discussions with the US?

Imagine they were in the EU. The EU could leverage the trade bazooka in the current tariff war.

Even if Canada doesn't join the EU, there is a lot of mutual benefit from an economic and military defense pact (beyond NATO, which is nearly dead).

I’m not sure what the EU has to trade, except Volkswagens and BMWs which are 10% car and 90% pension costs.

You know that the EU has a large trade surplus of goods with the US?

Right… so why do you think the US imposed tariffs? Germany is already seeing gigantic problems via declining exports because of China. Are they going to stop exports to the United States too?

The EU can’t add any more “trade bazooka” than it already has. Canada doesn’t change anything in that dynamic.

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