This argument is fundamentally incompatible with all the breathless rhetoric about "AGI" coming from the providers' general direction.
This argument is fundamentally incompatible with all the breathless rhetoric about "AGI" coming from the providers' general direction.
So many commenters here see it as their ... duty? to argue against the most optimistic/unhinged (take your pick) arguments from "the other side" and then treat everybody who disagrees as a shill or an idiot.
Why is "being good at chess" a proxy for whatever AGI strawmen you want to argue against?
Maybe step back from your black-and-white ledge and think about discussing what's actually under discussion? For example, why or why not would an LLM be good at chess? Will they be good at chess? What technical limitations might preclude that?
The labs frequently apply their raw models to problems that do not make economic sense for their customers but that demonstrate the power and capability of their systems. These experiments can cost millions of dollars. That's not customer-shaped.
They're not going to give you access to that. It's not a product. The government might have an interest in this, but that's not something you'd be privileged to know about.
And when these labs do develop "AGI", they more than likely won't be selling it to end users. They've pretty much already said this.