I agree LLMs are already a commodity market, definitely at the non-frontier model level, but I don't think it affects monetization prospects much. After all, server compute is a commodity and yet cloud businesses have been exploding even before AI.
And compute is exactly why it won't be a "winner takes most" market. It is clear now that compute capacity is and will likely remain the biggest moat. Looking at Claude Code is instructive; arguably it was the better product, but it kept going down so much that Codex and other competitors have gained on it. Similarly, China could have the best models, but its access to hardware is deliberately limited by geopolitics, so it's likely their threat will be manageable for a while yet.
A key part of the success of AI companies will be in securing hardware and operating that infra cost-effectively via economies of scale. Hardware will remain expensive for a long time yet because all the hyper-scalers and neo-clouds are severely crunched, and all the fabs (mostly TSMC) are already at capacity even as demand keeps exploding.
And for better or worse, most of that supply will still flow through Nvidia, despite attempts from competitors like TPUs and NPUs, for the simple reason that Nvidia has the monopoly profits to outbid everyone else on the real chokepoint, which is fab capacity.