Yeah. My point was mostly to expand upon your original post - sorry if it sounded like I disagreed. You say the same in your original "iteration of speculation and observation". Everything else is about what "derive" and "knowledge" might mean (I agree "medieval" usually means pre-Renaissance and Galileo is modern-era), how much empirical "proof" is in "derive", etc. However, all you need for "possible" is "the idea", some "consequences", and ways to test.
So, to push back a tad on your more recent "only thing that I am aware of" and to maybe explain my above point better, I do think there was enough information/ideas in the abstract in Galileo/Newton/Leibniz' times to suggest the idea. Leibniz himself pushed back hard on Newton's absolute space/time (long before Mach). For Leibniz, it would have been counterintuitive space/time vs. counterintuitive fixed speed. So, that pushback itself could have been enough of a "clue" in your terms -- in some alternate timeline -- to drive a speculation-observation cycle starting from different inertial concepts - with Galilean moon eclipses then enough a clue that fast speeds existed to fool our slow-speed intuitions. (And all this in the "modern era".)
So, I continue to think it "not impossible" that the relativity principle could have arisen before any EM theory at all -- it just didn't. That matters for these kinds of speculative questions about what information horizons support what developments. A single "fast enough" fixed speed is is not that wild & crazy. The modern world has a zillion obscure physics theories like that (mostly just because so many more people work on that stuff, but that's a probability thing, not a possibility thing, and I suppose also partly inspired by how physics turned out - so not truly independent). History is littered with things that could have happened, but didn't.
P.S.: and apologies for "mistakes a fundamental error". I of course meant "makes a", if you wanted any evidence that I was not an LLM. ;-)