Predictive intelligence to anticipate anything.
prior.chat
prior.chat
Interestingly, I asked it a question, and asked 3.8 Flash the same question (as I no longer have easy access to 3.7 Flash) and the answers were NOT identical, as 3.8 Flash just mindlessly repeated whatever odds were live on Polymarket.
So then I asked 3.8 Flash to disregard the prediction markets and run its own analysis, and it produced essentially the same answer as the Prior.Chat interface.
Long story short, as far as I can tell it's running 3.7 Flash with a decent custom prompt. You'd probably get materially better results if you just asked a stronger model like Fable or Astra for a prediction...
Eh, every school db should be able to service a student called "Robert'); DROP TABLE Students;--", and every public facing LLM should still work even if asked to calculate the last digit of pi - that fulfills two noble purposes: 1) is fun and teaches whoever is responsible for the service some valuable lessons in craftsmanship or 2) if the service is built robustly (i.e. simple token limit and time limit per user), that's an easy way to gain street cred
That's not an unreasonable prediction but it's a little bit of a cop-out, especially the 51% bit.
One is that each coin flip has the same odds as the previous coin flip, and that assumption will continue with each flip.
If you have no way of knowing if or when the coin is changed, you can't make conclusions about the odds.
I asked it how many predictions it'll get right by Q4 2030 and it seems fairly confident in itself:
68% Prior averages 71% to 75% directional quarterly accuracy by 2030, matching elite human forecasting teams.
Jim Cramer's stock market predictions hover slightly above chance, only because of the so-called "Announcement Effect" (in other words, they aren't actually predictions). Without that, his claims would have zero predictive value.
Assuming that it gets anywhere close to that goal, does it take into consideration the effects of its predictions on the markets and calculates a fixpoint? (Or, maybe more likely, how the resulting chaotic system will behave?)
There is no tool that can do what this tool is claiming to do. At best, it can make reasonable inferences based on data it has available using whatever model it is using (assuming it's not a fraud) but key parts of the world are irreducibly complex. They cannot be predicted and that is without the problem of reflexivity which you correctly highlight as an issue - even for a notionally perfect prediction engine.
Given enough compute and data, you could model every human on the planet at subatomic granularity and you'd a) be chaotically sensitive to initial conditions; b) be subject to random quantum fluctuations.
Nice enough frontend though.
Tldr: dudes wife/kid die in an unpredictable accident so he builds a super computer that predicts things, and can even go back in time using probability. Interesting story.
this is basically technical astrology.