Comment by LogicFailsMe | Hacker News Reader

Comment by LogicFailsMe | Hacker News Reader

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Pretty much fanfic. The gap between premise and execution remains limiting. Nvidia has adapted to changing markets better than anyone else up to this date which is what got them to the top in the first place. What makes you think "this time it's different?"

The fallacy I see repeatedly is someone spots a legitimate issue that could hurt Nvidia and by the time they have stood up the challenge to pull that off, Nvidia has pivoted and addressed it. Or more recently, they just acquired it like Groq.

For your premise to hold, you're asserting Nvidia is blind to inference. And yet his public positioning suggests otherwise.

https://qz.com/nvidia-gtc-2026-jensen-huang-keynote-takeaway...

What makes you think they've hit some sort of metaphorical iceberg and all they'll do before they sink is rearrange deck chairs?

I'm not saying the bet is against Nvidia the company as in how it executes, or enters new markets.

the bet is against the high margins in inference - when other capable players have entered the market as models become commoditized and the inference serving chips as well. Cerebrus ai etc are already showing custom silicon can make a dent while being served cheaper & faster.

I don't think anyone expects nvidia to "sink". We're concerned that competitive pressures and possible reductions from sky-high demand could make it really hard for nv to justify or maintain their current valuation.

That is, revenues may be unusually cyclically high.

It's going to be hard for frontier labs to keep spending at this rate without starting to make money. And even if they do, lower cost alternatives will likely impact at least to -some- extent how much of that revenue nv gets.

Have you ever checked out the beta on Nvidia stock? Not to mention its surprisingly sane P/E ratio?

Compare and contrast with Tesla.

I know the P/E isn't completely nuts.

It still prices in revenue growth.

It is possible that nv maintains an absolutely dominant market position and total amount spent on GPUs continues to rise.

It's also possible that either of these things doesn't happen.

Yes, but the first mover advantage really is a thing. As an example, Yahoo really had to mess up to lose its spot to Google, but they were up to the challenge.

That doesn't really have anything to do with what I said.

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