I thought the warming waters were supposed to increase the number of hurricanes?
But this mental model loses the most important feature of the climate system.
It's not a dimmer switch. It's more like an ON / OFF switch.
We live in a stable climate today. Things are getting a little warmer. And we see some weird things. But still, even at a little warmer, we are in the same stable climate system, just a little warmer or cooler.
However, if we flip to "OFF" on a stable climate by getting a lot warmer, our climate system moves to a chaotic state unlike anything we've ever known in human history.
It goes elsewhere too, as expected.
> Given the strong and still-strengthening El Niño, which tends to reduce the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin while boosting numbers in the Pacific, there is some chance that this season could end on Nov. 30 with no hurricanes.
But I am not liking this site. Both articles are mostly just restating "this is really rare" in 5+ different ways without explaining why. If anyone has a better site, a link would be most appreciated.
Weather patterns in the Americas and Asia change in the summer through winter months. Rainfall changes throughout the Americas, and Asia sees worsening floods and storms.
Just because the Atlantic sees fewer hurricanes doesn't mean it's out of the woods - the number of winter storms increases.
That is a question. I suppose the answer is yes, you thought that.
You likely thought that because - Holy cow. Year after year after year of explosively strengthening Cat5 storms is fairly well unprecedented.
source: FL coastal resident and repeated hurricane relief worker.
Equally unprecedented is the supercharged El Nino that's been interfering with the Atlantic Basin's ability to form storms, in proportion to it's record development.