Let’s look to the past:
https://www.history.com/articles/1929-stock-market-crash-war...
Let’s look to the past:
https://www.history.com/articles/1929-stock-market-crash-war...
Maybe THAT'S the real recession indicator.
The Internet didn't stop expanding in 2000-2001. Everything got drastically larger over the following two decades. The multiples on earnings did implode for ~15 years however. MSFT stock for one example went nowhere during that time and compressed down to a near single digit PE.
AI will be a minimum of 10x larger in most every regard 20 years out. That has nothing to do with shorter-term multiples given to these companies in relation to the hyper fast growth they have been riding early in the boom.
https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredie...
Gold, small cap value, long term treasuries all have done well historically.