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The biggest problem is that the US has shown not trustable when it comes to treaty. You can have a treaty with the US but the US can just use Israel or some other proxy to do the advance research and development for them..

It’s one of the only countries that reliably follows treaties. Unfortunately they are very hard to pass, which is why the agreements falsely called treaties are so easy to reverse - they are all personal executive orders like JCPOA (alas)

How would it make them worse off? If everybody agrees that AI is a threat to humanity, but also a possible edge over rivals, then the threat should be enough reason to get everybody to agree.

There are international agreements on tons of things that work the same way.

> If everybody agree[d] that AI is a threat to humanity

Which would be either very difficult or very ironical, given that realizing that humanity is a threat to humanity precedes that.

Why would they trust the US to honour anything they sign? Look how Trump has ignored the trade deal he signed with Canada.