It would have to be the 2nd option. Who in their right mind would voluntarily choose Windows as their dev env? It will have to be those who are already there.
WSL is really nice, as is Windows Terminal. I particularly love its fonts (but that's probably just me).
If they can replicate that capability, I think it can be a draw.
I was a mac / Linux guy before my current gig, but Visual Studio is so much more capable than XCode that I basically only use the Windows machine except to debug mac-specific issues. Less so, now, admittedly, that the malware scanner process is literally always pegging a CPU core.
The alternative being macOS, if Apple actually had competitive prices for all kinds of world economies.
Regardless of how evil gigantic companies can be, or what the ideal world should look like: from a pure usability perspective, windows is top of the list.
If I got 5$ every time a linux/mac enthousiasts has to tell me they just cannot run something, and proposing a myriad of workarounds to stick to their ideology, I could buy an apple vision pro and let it collect dust in the corner of my basement.
I would argue against the idea that it's the default for most enterprise dev. What you refer to as creative/web culture I would refer to as a newer generation of enterprise dev written in (I know) JS, TS, Electron etc. There is a lot of cross platform stuff out there, at least for clients, and Linux has taken up a lot of ground in the server market as well.
With CAD and GPU programming you have a point - proprietary drivers written for Windows has more technical sticking power.
I guess my feeling is that, especially with all the headlines saying European countries will move away from American software giants, Windows seems less attractive as a long term target for investing my time. Not to mention it's buggy and slow these days.
For us to actually move away, European countries need to be willing to fully support the whole programming stack, and hardware.