Just coming up to five years on mine and it is still at 87% capacity.
Big phones are overrated.
Really it mostly depends on how heavily you use it, and maybe to a lesser extent charging habits (charging slowly, not charging to 100%, etc).
Edit: I just googled it. Apple claims that the iphone 17 should handle 1000 full charge cycles before reaching 80% capacity
I also believe apple’s claim is assuming optimal conditions. Real life is going to do a fair bit worse. So likely 700-1000 cycles for 80% if the pattern holds up.
If you are using “needs replacing” to mean “the device will be non-functional or risk permanent damage”, you can go significantly lower than 80%. In fact, I think most devices could go down to 0% battery health unless the battery swells.
I follow the estimate that lipos lose 2-4% capacity per year without any use beyond recharging for safety. If the battery sees daily use that number gets a lot worse.
My guess is everyone else is the perfect mix of hardly any use and winning the battery lottery.
I'm not sure where the capacity will end up after 5 years, but I think my iPhone 14 pro was at less than 95% at this point. Apple refused to replace just the battery on that one because of a small crack in the screen.
The SE versions have a history of board level issues so I have been afraid to touch any of them.
I damaged my first iPhone repair even after multiple years of active hardware modification on other consumer devices. The older models really only go smooth if you have the Apple tools. A nice $149 of tool rental to swap the $50 part at home, rather than paying the $199 to get Apple to swap it for you. Odd how that math works out.