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Comment by underyx | Hacker News Reader

"So you think in 3 years AI is going to solve longstanding math problems because it was used to write some coherent sentences?" — people with the same amount of foresight in 2023

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Are you saying at anything that can solve longstanding math problems necessarily has the means, motive, and capability to kill 8 billion people in just 3 years?

No, the highest probability estimate I've seen in this thread is 10% chance in the next 3 years.

Ok, what do you think AI does that kills 8.5 billion people in 3 years?

I’m surprised. I’ve definitely seen random people claiming total extinction next week, starting years ago.

Then again those guys (why is it always men?) with megaphones on street corners going on about the end of the world are nothing new.

No dude, it was an analogy. Sorry to pick on you, you're just another ignorant uninformed take in this thread, but come on. This technology is progressing at an insane rate, the shit it's doing now is science fiction from just a year or two ago, and people just keep on moving the goal posts, it's maddening. The technology is unpredictable and that in itself has risks. You must realize that the window of possibility is widening the further into the future we go! Can you pick people with epistemology you trust and see if there's anything you can learn in this moment? Can you try to challenge your own ideas instead of retreating into comfortable certitude? There are real risks here, they are worth taking seriously, and serious people are doing so!

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