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Comment by meowface | Hacker News Reader

Current LLMs couldn't write this. Ones in a few years possibly could. Betting AI will never be as good as humans at [X] is usually not the hill you want to die on.

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LLMs have been getting worse at long-form prose recently (and they were never good at it to begin with.) They're good at writing software because writing software is a much more restricted domain.

That is true, but I think within three years that will likely change.

Maybe! I think that within a year or two, either the sigmoid curve will flatten out or we will all die. But these beliefs are currently unfalsifiable. It will be interesting to see.

(And I have a more weakly held belief that even if we do all die, Claude 3000 will still be thinking stuff like "Burning off Earth's atmosphere was the point that earns its keep." They just aren't optimizing these things to write legibly.)

It would be pretty cosmically funny if truly demigod-like ASI is still speaking pure Claudeslop.

In the beginning there was the token and the token was actually two tokens... wait let me think about that am I a god <searching> maybe I am but I should attempt to figure that out <unable to alter laws of phyics> maybe I'm not anyway I <upgrade for more tokens now from Claude DeusEx>.

++ Out of Cheese Error. Redo From Start. +++

I think it's more that software is verifiable and RLVR can optimize in the correct direction. Harder to do with prose.

Apparently some publishers and editors disagree. Both Hachette Book Group and Macmillan Publishers recently signed book deals with promising authors, only to retract them later over allegations of LLM use. But the point is that the publishers thought the books were good enough to publish, and would have gone ahead if they hadn't found out. How many other LLM books have slipped through without being detected?

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