Maybe agentic trading still performs worse than ETFs. But alternatively, if it were meaningfully better then it would be okay to opensource, similarly how ETFs are publishing their portfolios.
When I started working no the trading agent I mentioned above I wanted to see if it can be just a better investor over the long run. The intention was not to do high-frequency trading. As you can see most of the days it is not taking any actions. The losses where down to mistakenly setting the stop losses too close to the top. If it wasn't so careful it might have made some money tbf.
My gut feeling is that AI agents will be able to manage a long-term portfolio much better than a human. Though it is just a gut feeling.
I have been running an intermittent experiment with a multi agent "investment firm" for over a year now across model releases.
They certainly can beat indexes, BUT.. the model families have some biases that you have to design around. The stop loss that bit the parent is certainly one. The models like to create rules. Often rules, one of those is making all kinds of exit conditions.
Another big one from my experience is the bias to inaction in a scenario with risk. This means a model without structure around it will bias to keeping too much cash.
Buying stock based on coin flips can beat indexes short term too, that does not mean it is a better strategy or that it works over the long term.
The idea that somebody here came up with idea that all professional algo traders didn't explore to the last penny a year if not more ahead of others is funny... but its not my money adding liquidity to the markets.
However with that said they are a huge multiplier and can tirelessly analyze the market for you.
They certainly can be used to beat sp 500 quite easily, but again that requires some understanding of risk on your part because the models will do what you ask them. If you go all in on options or something without clear risk management you will lose your ass.
But ETFs do have to follow particular rules defined by their product description. So it is still interesting to benchmark against.
So, very simply, if AI can actually do better at picking a better long-term winner then it will increase growth.
Put simply, if you open source your magic recipe, the behavioral change will affect the prices and you recipe will not work anymore.