What will prevent LLMs from designing robot control circuitry and participating in increase of chip production/design and physical experimentation?
How do you think why there's this fad of producing general purpose humanoid robots?
How do you think why there's this fad of producing general purpose humanoid robots?
For doing physical work?
So a swarm of robots builds the shell of your fab overnight, and then what? Where is the EUV machine coming from?
So far the most we're seen TeslaBot do is serve drinks via tele-operation, and I don't think it's exactly built for construction site work.
ASMLs EUV machines are literally the most complex machine that mankind has ever built, which is why no other country, including the US, has yet been able to duplicate it. It's not just the machine itself, but a global supply chain of irreplaceable components such as focusing mirrors made by Zeiss to an incomprehensible level of accuracy - differences in surface height no more than the size of a hydrogen atom (or if you scaled the mirror up to the size of the country of Germany, then surface differences in height of 0.1mm).
Robots are useful to automate things, but they are zero help when trying to build tech like this that you are incapable of building in the first place.
The US has fallen way behind in manufacturing expertise, and no swarm of robots is going to help.
Etching a model's weights on silicon is another way to utilize non-top-notch tech-processes, while maintaining or improving performance. (and it suits robotics well)
Putting a model's weights in read-only memory close to the processor is certainly a way to increase token/sec generation speed, but of course does nothing to increase intelligence. Robots aren't going to help though - semiconductor manufacturing is semiconductor manufacturing regardless of whether you are etching GPUs or memory onto your wafers.
Robots don't need that much intelligence. High-speed joint control, "hand-eye coordination", the higher level tasks can be delegated to external models. Distillation already works quite well for isolating the required functionality.
But, the production expansion rate of none of these companies is being limited by lack of trained personnel, and if it were it would surely be faster to hire/train more humans since robots are still very far from human dexterity, not to mention intelligence.
Robots and AI are tools of automation, a way to replace humans with machines, but not all the problems in the world are bottle-necked by lack of humans, or the cost of humans.
Money, regulations, EUV machine lead-times, global helium supply, reality ...
It's funny that we've got the Dwarkesh contingent saying that GPUs will become infinitely expensive, and now another contingent saying that they will become infinitely abundant.
Even if compute were free, and/or the AI was so smart that it picked the right experiments to run every time ("make no mistakes"), you still have to actually train the model, which takes months, and if model Ver. N+1 depends on model Ver. N, then it's iterative regardless of how much compute you have.
Yeah, but then you need to refine it to 99.9999% purity, to be able to use it.
The word "singularity" is presumably coming from math or space, like a black hole singularity where matter becomes infinitely dense and the known laws of physics break down.