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Comment by sajithdilshan | Hacker News Reader

Congrats to Isar Aerospace. If any nation in Europe that can start a new space frontier, that would be the Germans and I hope Isar would get strong support from the Bavarian state to be a neck-on-neck competitor to SpaceX.

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Agreed, but do you think either of the two federal/state governments would even have enough support material available, whether in the form of capital or otherwise (i.e. contracts), to give to Isar Aerospace that would enable them to compete with (at current valuation) a giant like SpaceX?

Bavaria is one of the most richest (if not the most) state in Germany. By GDP alone it's the 7th largest economy in Europe (https://www.vbw.com/int/About-us/Facts-about-Bavaria/index.j...). Of course they have money to support Isar and they should do it to diversify their economy and break the heavy dependency on auto manufacturers.

(As a Bavarian,) I’m acutely aware of the state’s economy – but my point is that SpaceX has an even bigger economy behind it, if the two were to actually be compared or compete.

Good point re/ depending on auto makers, though. That also applies to all of Germany…

Bigger economy, yes by about 10x. But despite the spectacle, SpaceX's actual expenses have been around 0.3-0.4% of German GDP in recent years.

It's priorities rather than absolute costs that matter here. Germany could absolutely do all of SpaceX as almost a rounding error, but probably has better things for that money to get spent on.

> Isar Aerospace that would enable them to compete with (at current valuation) a giant like SpaceX?

Compete, sure. But disregard SpaceX's valuation, that's driven by Musk's cult of personality rather than business fundamentals.

> If any nation in Europe that can start a new space frontier, that would be the Germans

I apologise for the tactlessness, but it just made me think of Tom Lehrer's lyrics about Wernher von Braun:

> "Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down? That's not my department" says Wernher von Braun.

>If any nation in Europe that can start a new space frontier, that would be the Germans

If that is true, then only because the company doesn't immediately have to fight Arianespace. It is France that has the strongest existing know-how and longest history in rockets, going further back than Arianespace. The gap between WW2 rocket development and now is so long that German history with rockets may as well not exist.

> The gap between WW2 rocket development and now is so long that German history with rockets may as well not exist.

And yet, all currently existing rocket designs capable of reaching (and staying in) orbit can trace their design back to the Aggregat 4 and the engineers (and slave labour) that built it.

There’s a huge difference between know how and the execution. What has France been doing since WWII? If they have the know how, shouldn’t they be at the same level as US now?

Meanwhile Germany had to deal with partition, reunification and now the biggest economy in Europe and also build an economic empire without firing a single shot. That’s why I said Germans would be the only nation that can actually execute the know how into being a frontier. Maybe France can actually learn a thing or two from the Germans on how to build an empire even after losing two world wars

There are ignorant takes and then there is this. A country that can build the Rafale independently is not to be trifled with.

> What has France been doing since WWII? If they have the know how, shouldn’t they be at the same level as US now

A lot? I mean they were on the same level or above in the early 2000s.

Ariane was sort of the SpaceX of the 80s by commercializing and significantly decreasing the cost of space launches.

> from the Germans on how to build an empire

Yeah.. the German economy is in a remarkably great state these days.

"The gap between WW2 rocket development and now is so long that German history with rockets may as well not exist."

well they exist in both US and Soviet at the time

Yeah, but my point is that it doesn't help current German space companies.

As seen in the US and by Ariane’s moves in the last few decades, that history is more of a millstone around their neck than an advantage.

Congrats to Isar but I think you don't understand the scale difference here and the immensity of what it would take to be a neck-on-neck competitor to SpaceX. The orders of magnitude of launch efficiency are... starting to become staggering.

Isar is a good fallback for sovereignty and national defense! But, if Germany wants to compete with SpaceX in earnest, they will need to re-orient a large portion of their national economy around it. They are raising something like $100 billion for their launch complex in LA currently.

Of course the cost structure for space companies is very different than for AI and electronics but Chinese companies have proven that they can achieve ~90% of what the bloated US companies are doing on a tiny fraction of their budget. Of course efficiency hasn’t been a priority in the EU for decades so unlikely they can replicate anything China is doing

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